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Global Scenario Group
The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century.
The GSG’s underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the (PoleStar Project ). Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, PoleStar was inspired by the 1987 Brundtland Commission report ''Our Common Future'', which first put the concept of “sustainable development” on the international agenda.
The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the World Water Council’s World Water Vision report in 1999-2000,〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/fileadmin/world_water_council/documents_old/Library/WWVision/Chapter3.pdf )〕 the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001,〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/1863523.pdf )〕 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s greenhouse gas emission mitigation assessment in 2001,〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/ )〕 the United Nations Environment Programme’s Third GEO Report in 2002,〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.unep.org/geo/GEO3/pdfs/GEO_ScenarioFramework.pdf )〕 and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005.〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/document.305.aspx.pdf )〕 Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments have been recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC.〔(Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 )〕
==Scenarios==
In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead''.〔Paul Raskin, Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert Kates, and Rob Swart, ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead'' (Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002), http://www.greattransition.org/gt-essay.〕 The essay argues that history has entered a qualitatively new era of high global interdependence, which they refer to as the Planetary Phase of Civilization. Some kind of global society will take shape in this century, but its form remains deeply uncertain and highly contested. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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